Pending deal
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP ← UNION PACIFIC CORP
Cash and Stock
Friendly
Industrial
AnnouncedJul 29, 2025
Expected closeJun 30, 2027
Deal value$88.40B
% sought100.0%
SectorIndustrial
Announcement jump
Day-0 reaction
-3.04%Pending
Cohort median+6.95%
Day-5 return
Cumulative through day 5
-2.29%Pending
Cohort median+5.29%
Latest spread
Current vs offer
25.4300Pending
Cohort median4.1109
Interpretation
Auto-generated comparison summary
- 01The pending deal's announcement reaction looks materially weaker than the analogue median (-3.0% vs +6.9%).
- 02By day 5, the pending deal still looks weaker than analogue history (-2.3% vs +5.3%).
- 03At the current comparison horizon, the spread is materially wider than the analogue median (25.43 vs 4.11).
- 04Analogue coverage includes 2 same-sector analogues and 32 fallback analogues, so the strongest comparisons should generally come from the same-sector names first.
Top analogues
Ranked by similarity to the pending deal · click headers to sort
10 matches
| Reasons | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN | Tier 1 | Sep 15, 2021 | 1053.75 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)same target sector (Industrial)similar percent sought |
| 02 | FLIR SYSTEMS INC | Tier 1 | Jan 4, 2021 | 1047.28 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)same target sector (Industrial)similar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
| 03 | CELGENE CORP | Tier 2 | Jan 3, 2019 | 99.65 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)fallback out-of-sector analoguevery similar deal sizesimilar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
| 04 | ALLERGAN UNLTD CO | Tier 2 | Jun 25, 2019 | 96.44 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)fallback out-of-sector analoguevery similar deal sizesimilar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
| 05 | TIME WARNER INC | Tier 2 | Oct 22, 2016 | 87.49 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)fallback out-of-sector analoguevery similar deal sizesimilar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
| 06 | EVERNORTH HEALTH INC | Tier 2 | Mar 8, 2018 | 85.69 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)fallback out-of-sector analoguesimilar deal sizesimilar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
| 07 | AETNA INC | Tier 2 | Dec 3, 2017 | 85.52 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)fallback out-of-sector analoguesimilar deal sizesimilar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
| 08 | DIRECTV | Tier 2 | May 18, 2014 | 84.60 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)fallback out-of-sector analoguesimilar deal sizesimilar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
| 09 | ALLERGAN INC/UNITED STATES | Tier 2 | Nov 17, 2014 | 83.55 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)fallback out-of-sector analoguesimilar deal sizesimilar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
| 10 | COVIDIEN LTD | Tier 2 | Jun 15, 2014 | 72.47 | same payment type (Cash and Stock)fallback out-of-sector analoguesimilar deal sizesimilar percent soughtsame bid nature (Friendly) |
Target return path
Cumulative return from baseline
Spread path
Absolute spread vs offer price
Volume ratio path
Trading volume relative to baseline
Sources & news
External coverage and filings
3